Not fooled by randomness
Nassim Taleb wrote a book that caught our attention, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life. We are interested in not being fooled, and we are interested in the larger project of understanding human nature, if there is such a thing. We are particularly interested in understanding psychological attitudes that prevent people from understanding the New World Order conspiracy. A sixth-grader could understand the Illuminati conspiracy in less than an hour, yet a substantial proportion of Americans cannot recognize that Obama is lying lie after lie and tightening the noose of the socialist prison camp.
So why are we able to grasp something that eludes others? Our quick answer is, people are fooled by worldview blindness. We understand that all mental processes work through the interaction of perception and learning. When the learning consists of false history and false propaganda constructions perpetuated by the schools and the media, people are going to remain in the matrix. They probably won’t even recognize that there is a control matrix as the control mechanisms have been internalized.
Taleb is an investor with a doctorate in statistics. He promises to explain how other investors are fooled by failing to take into account extremely rare financial events, called black swans. Taleb notes that there is a lack of understanding of statistical probabilities among professional investors, even very successful investors. His recipe for success is to calculate the probabilities of negative financial events and thus insure himself against catastrophic losses.
Taleb believes that much of investing success is luck that is interpreted as skill. The lucky investor becomes overconfident and imagines he is master of the markets, but he can be destroyed by an unanticipated event that goes against his strategy.
Taleb does not use the term “worldview blindness” to describe his lucky investors. We believe we invented the term. The parallel point within New World Order studies would be, the brainwashed socialist masses operate out of a false understanding of the real motives of their leaders, so they are unprepared for the global financial crisis, the ruinous policies of socialism, the destruction of culture and society, the socialist spy network, the theft of wealth, and the killing fields of the population controllers.
But there is a key difference between Taleb’s analysis of investment risk and our history of the New World Order. Taleb believes the investor fails to perceive randomness, whereas we insist the brainwashed sheeple fail to recognize coordinated planning, even when the plans are written down and published for the public to read.
Can conspiracy theorists learn anything from theories of probability? Probably not much. We perused Taleb’s books for nuggets we might use to test our own psychological blind spots. We learned that most Wall Street traders go broke in a relatively short period of time. The large number of traders who exit the occupation is not widely reported. Instead, attention is focused on a small number of successful traders. Taleb explains that, for any group of traders, a certain percentage are highly likely to have impressive 3-year and 5-year track records, by luck alone. In fact, the most successful traders for a short run are those who manage risk poorly.
Taleb believes that back-testing investment strategies on past market data is not a sufficiently rigorous strategy to prevent catastrophic losses. This observation leads to a more general principle we can learn from: People tend to look at the information that is in front of them rather than seeking out hidden information. Ordinary folks are fooled by news, by authority figures, and by belief in orderly systems. One must get curious to move out of the matrix. Of course, it’s also extremely helpful to have a teacher.
Taleb devotes a lot of space in his book to distinguishing between noise and meaningful information. He defines news as noise, noting that journalists are trained to supply the public with what is interesting to them, not what is true or meaningful. Taleb congratulates himself for separating himself from financial TV, and so do we. Alan Watt explains why, in 3 minutes.
TV news is purposefully misleading by the stories it refuses to report and the questions it does not ask. For example, how many commentators on FOX News complain that Obama is making mistakes because he does not understand basic economics? Obama is not making mistakes, he is carrying out a takeover agenda. Jobs and economic growth are not part of the socialist takeover agenda.
Another important point from Taleb is his observation that technologies do not succeed because of their superiority. His example is Bill Gates, who did not write the best software. Taleb cites this as an example of luck prevailing over skill, but this whole dichotomy of luck vs. skill is useless within the wider framework of New World Order studies. Gates was chosen to succeed by executives at IBM. That’s the way the system works. Taleb’s worldview blindness is the central idea of luck itself. And randomness is not a noun, not a thing, definitely not a causal agent, and is not a component of any systems analysis.
Taleb’s most compelling statement is that “randomness does not appear to be random.” But we believe he is merely playing with words. We were waiting for examples to illustrate his point, but he provided none. In fact, we were looking for some organization of topics around principles of probability with illustrative examples, or anecdotes from which the author could draw conclusions, but the book is not organized. The first couple of chapters, storytelling about Wall Street traders, are the most interesting. After that Taleb goes off meandering from subject to subject, as if he had spoken each paragraph separately into a microphone and then typed up random thoughts.
Taleb touches on subjects he has read about, evolutionary biology (the most popular liberal pseudoscience), medicine (which he never discusses in detail), and Greek philosophy (the most deterministic worldview). But his comments are just noise.
Taleb admires George Soros as an investor, and here his NWO ignorance pops clearly into view. Soros funds the activist Left, in the United States and in Europe — organizations like Move On, ACORN, the whole panoply of appearing and disappearing pressure groups. Taleb believes Soros is an advocate of “the open society,” but Soros is a socialist New World Order controller, one of the big dragons, a truly evil player on the world stage. Soros attacks governments and brings them down. Not a word of this from Taleb. Hmmm. Doesn’t he know? Everybody else does.
Taleb also never says a word about the global financial system, its crises, or the bad actors who manipulate financial markets. Is he just naive? There is a huge difference between a stock market consisting of small investors buying dividend and growth stocks and heavily capitalized gangsters entitled to invade every market around the world. Greg Palast reports on some of their global dirty machinations here.
The global financial integration scheme was put together by these heirs of the Illuminati, who were swindlers, liars, con artists, and anti-social gangsters. Their inner compass is “their right” to do whatever they want to the rest of us. These sociopaths care nothing for laws, even the laws they make. Their “right’ is the right to dominate the rest of us, to exploit, to feast off your labor, to take your wealth and your life.
Now, what kind of probability scenarios would you like to run under integrated global socialism? The probability that any particular country can continue to exist? The probability that national debts will be repaid? The probability of economic growth? The probability of illegal wealth confiscation? The probability of high taxes? Or would you rather hear about Taleb’s simulation software warning of “black swans”?
As we pointed out in Chapter 26 of The Hidden Masters, probability calculations are a purely intellectual mathematical operation. Probabilities cannot be linked to causation of real-world events. One can take any set of data and project the likelihood of future arrangements of that data, but these operations are entirely divorced from considerations of causes of events. Black swan events in financial markets are extreme downturns or “crashes.” To understand crashes one needs to understand money flows, but global money flows are often hidden information. Knowing that a government is about to default on bond payments is difficult to know in advance. Money flows create bubbles, but it is almost impossible to know when a particular bubble of money flow is about to reverse. It is extremely difficult to predict how governments and big financial institutions will react to financial crises because each arrangement is political and ad hoc.
The whole idea of linking economies by trade agreements and creating a global financial system is extremely risky because it removes barriers, making the whole world subject to the ripples of crisis after crisis. But when the people who create the system are master criminals who set up the system in their interest, global integration becomes nothing more than a criminal enterprise.
Under New World Order global integration, calculating investment probabilities based on probabilities seems like a fool’s game. That is why financial blogs are so severely split into two camps, one camp consisting of “traditional” economic and investment models, and the other camp consisting of anti-New World Order economists and investors who continually predict crisis after crisis emerging from the bad motives of the bad players manipulating these markets.
What has your worldview blinded you to?
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